Mild third wave of Covid likely to peak in January, February next year: IIT Kanpur prof

Amild third wave of Covid-19 is likely to peak in India between January and February next year, IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agrawal has claimed. He is a co-founder of the government-backed Sutra model which was used to mathematically project the trajectory of the pandemic in India.

Manindra Agrawal said that cases of the new variant Omicron will be at their peak early next year, around the same time that the Assembly elections in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur have been scheduled.


The researcher stated that there is no need to panic about the new variant but citizens must remain careful. In contrast to a South African research study, Manindra Agrawal said that Omicron does not seem to be bypassing natural immunity from Covid in any significant way.

He also noted that, across the globe, the Omicron variant is not leading to critical cases but only mild infection. The data gathered so far suggests that the variant has only mild symptoms, even as its transmissibility appears to be high.


Manindra Agrawal said that a third wave in the country is nearly certain; however, how bad it will get will depend on how the government tackles it. He recommended mild lockdowns (night curfew, restrictions on crowding) to control the spread of the virus and reduce the peak value.

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